The Poker Blog

By Tony Guerrera

Traditional poker theory describes two tournament-playing philosophies: chip accumulation and chip preservation. To reach a coveted final table and eventually win a tournament, you need to accumulate chips. However, you can’t win a tournament if you don’t survive, and it’s sometimes best to preserve chips in search of a better opportunity. Both these ideas are important, but I firmly believe that the chip preservationists overestimate the impact that their perceived skill edges have – especially late in tournaments when the average stack size is on the order of 10-15 big blinds.

Learning From The Best

If you’re getting 1:1 on your chips, you should be willing risk your tournament life any time your chances of winning are greater than about 60%. And if you’re getting more than 1:1 on your chips, then your chances of winning can be lower. I get this 60% from modeling tournaments as a series of double-ups, using typical payout structures, and looking at the effective winning percentage of the best online tournament players, whose ROIs tend to be on the order of 100-200%.

In practice, top tournament players won’t risk their tournament lives unless they have bigger edges early in tournaments (when blinds are small and fields are weak) and smaller edges later in tournaments (when blinds are high and the riff-raff has been weeded out).

Watch the best tournament players both live and online, and you’ll see that they aren’t afraid of mixing it up and taking risks. From my own experience, I can say that I use to focus almost exclusively on chip preservation. Since adopting a less fearful stance, my results in multitable tournaments have been much stronger poker hand.

Accumulation and Preservation Don’t Have to be Opposites

Focusing on chip accumulation means that you shouldn’t be scared of putting your tournament life on the line. Today’s tournament poker’s top players show no fear, but you’ll notice that they don’t seem to face elimination very often.

This happens because of pot-size control. Sometimes, poker’s best tournament players elect to call in situations where aggressive play would be the norm in order to keep pots small in questionable situations.

The world’s best tournament players embrace the fact the hold’em is a game that happens across four betting rounds; they aren’t afraid of having to make tough decisions, and they don’t make large, questionable overbets all-in simply to avoid having to make decisions. Instead of going all-in, they make raises that leave them with some chips.

Have no qualms about juicing up poker pots in which you have a big edge. But when you’re in marginal situations, adopt measured lines of play, and you’ll find that you can accumulate chips without constantly risking your tournament life.

Tony Guerrera is the author of Killer Poker By The Numbers. Visit him online at http://www.killerpokerbythenumbers.com

By Tony Guerrera

Suppose you’re the best shorthanded no-limit hold’em player in the world for online poker. You sit at a $500-$1,000 blind shorthanded no-limit hold’em game with five other world-class shorthanded no-limit hold’em players. Meanwhile, at the same time, there’s a $100-$200 blind shorthanded no-limit hold’em game featuring three world-class players and two relatively weak players. If your goal is to make the most money per hour, which table would you prefer to site at?

Though the $100-$200 blind game is smaller, it may very well be the case that your expected win rate at that game will be higher than your expected win rate in the $500-$1,000 blind game. It only takes one or two relatively weak players to affect your expected bottom line substantially – especially in a shorthanded game, where fewer opponents can run interference. And remember that your hourly win-rate is a function of both stakes and competition.

If table selection is important for world-class players, imagine how important it is for you!

The Ideal Games

Many authors write about wanting to play in cash games that are loose and passive. This basically means that people like to stay in hands, and that they typically do so by calling. Another keyword I’d like to ascribe to these games is straightforward. The most profitable games for you will be ones where your opponents employ very little trickery. Against straightforward, passive opponents, you can 1.) value bet your marginal hands to death 2.) know when your good hands are beaten and 3.) pick up lots of free cards.

If you’re a tournament player, your goal should be to find tournaments with overlays, good blind structures, favorable payout structures, and typically weak fields. Play around at different venues to find the tournaments that are best for you, and once you find those tournaments, play them religiously.

Discipline is Key

Sometimes you’ll be lucky and stumble upon a really good game. However, you usually need to go out and find it. If you’re in a casino, walk around and observe all the games before sitting. If there’s a board, and you have no choice regarding where you first sit, request a table change if you’re seated at a tough table. If you’re playing online, table hop until you find a game with the playing conditions you’re looking for.

And regardless of how you’ve been doing at a table, don’t grow roots at your table. Games change over time, so if a once easy game has become tough, change tables. Be disciplined, keep your ego out of things, and you’ll be rewarded with a rapidly growing bankroll.

Tony Guerrera is the author of Killer Poker By The Numbers. Visit him online at http://www.killerpokerbythenumbers.com

By Tony Guerrera

Famous player X says that he never calls all-in preflop with AA in a tournament if two other players are already all-in and have him covered. Famous player Y stresses the importance of avoiding marginal confrontations early in tournaments.

Every well-known player has given some trinket of poker advice. You need to ask yourself whether those trinkets were properly worded when they were, most likely, given on the spot. You also need to ask yourself if those trinkets apply to the particular situation you’re in.

Tournament Variables

It’s tempting to think that tournament poker is just about the poker hands. However, it’s about much more. Driving forces behind your tournament decisions will also be the following:

• Blind Structure
• Stack Sizes
• Field Size
• Payout Structure

Whenever a famous tournament player is asked for an on-the-spot tip, you need to remember that those tips are “on-the-spot” and that they, most likely, are most applicable to the types of tournaments that the famous player typically plays in. If you’re playing $5+$1 turbo tournaments online, the advice that someone gives regarding playing the first hour of the WSOP main event might not hold water.

Forsaking Present Edges for Bigger Edges in the Future

A lot of tournament advice involves avoiding marginal confrontations in the present because losing those confrontations will prevent you from realizing greater edges in the future. Understanding this concept is important, but many players take this advice too far because they overestimate the impact that their skill will have in future hands.

Suppose you have AA, and you have 10 big blinds left in a large multitable tournament with a top-heavy payout structure. You’re on the bubble, and the average stack in the tournament is 14BB. You’re in the big blind, and two players that have you covered go all-in before you. Against two opponents, your probability of winning the hand is probably around 65%. A 65% chance of tripling up in a tournament featuring a top-heavy payout schedule is huge. You can’t pass it up. You’ll be eliminated 35% of the time, but how much skill can you honestly employ with a ten big blind stack? Not much.

Generally, deep stacks are needed to even consider forsaking marginal edges. However, even in those cases, players overestimate how much of a favorite they need to be in order to risk all their chips. Look at many of today’s top players, and you may be surprised to see that they are quite aggressive in accumulating chips; they are constantly involved.

Summary

Listening to successful people is important towards becoming successful ourselves. However, whenever listening, be active, and always think of context; as we all know, poker is highly situational. Deciding between preservation and accumulation is your call; make sure you make the right one!

Tony Guerrera is the author of Killer Poker By The Numbers. Visit him online at http://www.killerpokerbythenumbers.com

By Tony Guerrera

Fullhanded poker games hands populated by loose players are pretty easy; pretty much, you sit around and wait for good hands. It’s quite possible to beat loose fullhanded games without being able to beat any other type of game.

What if such a game isn’t available? Or what if you’re looking for ways to make even more money? To thrive in tough games and extract more profits from easy games, you need to find betting patterns that will induce your opponents to fold when you don’t have a good hand.

Betting Pattern #1: Squeeze Out Preflop Limpers!

Many players who habitually limp preflop will fold to suitably sized preflop raises. If you still have a few players remaining to act behind you, making large raises with any two cards is suicidal. But if you’re on the button or in the blinds, you should think of making a large raise following a limp parade (large meaning slightly bigger than pot-sized).

Be cautious of tight, passive players because these players sometimes slowplay big hands, and don’t employ this raise every time. But use this play occasionally to take down some easy pots.

Betting Pattern #2: Abuse Postflop Checkers!

Players who flop good poker hands will sometimes check the flop, but they’ll rarely check both the flop and the turn. If you’re in late position, and your opponents check both the flop and the turn, consider betting with any two cards. Bet somewhere around 2/3 pot…a bet that they most likely won’t call with draws or speculative hands. (If your opponents will call even much larger bets with draws or speculative hands, then you should abandon this line of play).

This play is most successful from late position since you get information from the double check, but you can also run it from early position when a non-threatening card falls after everyone has checked the flop.

Betting Pattern #3: Takeaway From Straightforward Preflop Raisers

Some preflop raisers reliably check after missing the flop. Whenever such a player raises preflop, call with any two cards if you think you’ll be heads-up. If you’re out of position, check to him on the flop; if he checks behind, then bet the turn unless it’s a threatening-looking overcard. Meanwhile, if you’re in position, bet into him if he checks into you on the flop.
Summary

Many more stealing patterns exist, but what’s here will help you build a foundation for playing more insightful, creative poker. It’s tempting to abuse these lines of play, but if you use them too much, they will lose their effectiveness. The key, as always, is timing. When it comes to stealing pots, pretend you’re a snake in the grass. Lie in wait, and then strike. Then lie in wait some more before striking again.

Tony Guerrera is the author of Killer Poker By The Numbers. Visit him online at http://www.killerpokerbythenumbers.com

By Tony Guerrera

The bubble is that point in a tournament right before the money. In a large multitable tournament, the bubble might start 10-15 places before the money. In a small multitable tournament, the bubble might start somewhere around 5 places before the money. And in single table tournaments, the bubble is usually considered to be one place before the money, though bubble-like playing conditions typically begin when you’re two places away from the money.

Bubble-like playing conditions also occur at two other times: right before the final table of a multitable tournament and right before a big jump in payouts. The term “bubble-like playing conditions” is appropriate because play on the bubble is unique. By being aware of the unique playing dynamic, you’ll recognize prime opportunities to steal chips. And you’ll also recognize situations with normally playable cards and position where folding is best for your poker hands.

Bubble Dynamics

The driving force behind the bubble’s unique playing dynamic is that nobody wants to be eliminated on the bubble. For players with really short stacks, this makes a lot of sense. If a player is two or more double-ups away from being an average stack, his chances of taking a top pay spot are slim, meaning that it’s usually best simply to sneak into the money and take whatever payout he can. If a player is within two double-ups of having an average stack, accumulating chips should generally be a priority; however, players in this position also tend to avoid confrontations that will send them to the rail during bubble play.

The bottom line: players avoid skirmishes on the bubble. To take advantage: steal! At this point in the tournament, players’ stacks are such that raising to somewhere around 2.5 big blinds is usually sufficient enough to take pots uncontested preflop. Whenever short or medium stacks are the only players remaining behind you, raise provided that you have more chips than them (you need more chips since fear of elimination is where your increased fold equity comes from).

Don’t Invite Opponents to Resteal

You won’t be the only player aware of this changed dynamic. If you raise, and a very large stack is behind you, the large stack may reraise because he assumes that you’re most likely stealing and that you won’t want to risk being eliminated on the bubble. Medium stacks not concerned with simply sneaking into the money can pose this same problem.

In short, you should be looking to add chips to your stack on the bubble. However, if you’re not careful, it’s possible to squander valuable chips. In short: know the default bubble dynamic, know that your deeply stacked opponents know the default bubble dynamic, and look for short and medium stacks who deviate from the default dynamic.

Tony Guerrera is the author of Killer Poker By The Numbers. Visit him online at http://www.killerpokerbythenumbers.com

By Tony Guerrera

The Situation

A player I coach was recently involved in an instructional hand at the $1,000 buy-in ladies’ event at the The Bicycle Casino’s 2007 Legends of Poker. Her table had seven or eight players. UTG, an aggressive chip leader, raised to 4 big blinds. Action folded to my player, who held JJ in late position. When talking about this hand, my player mentioned to me that the raise to 4 big blinds was odd…whenever UTG raised, it was always to 5 big blinds. I won’t dismiss the possibility that UTG bet 4 big blinds accidentally; however, players who consistently raise to the same amount preflop tend to be very ritualistic. Something significant is happening when such a player raises to a different amount in his poker hands.

A fundamental law of reading players is the following: people tend to do things differently when they have big hands (to extract value) or when they are stone-cold bluffing (to minimize risk). UTG had a history of raising with a wide range of hands, meaning that she probably didn’t care about minimizing risk. Additionally, even generally aggressive players tend to raise with narrower distributions in early position. These two considerations alone mean that UTG had a monster hand. I would have put UTG on KK-AA (tossing QQ in the distribution would be debatable). UTG may as well have been playing her hand face up.

The Mistake

My player keenly noticed the different action…something most other players would miss. Furthermore, she’s a player who’s very capable of making a KK+ read and mucking hands like QQ and AK. In fact, she lost a very minimal amount of money when she had QQ vs. AA earlier in the tournament. Unfortunately, after many hours of play, my player was feeling fatigued.

After noting to herself that something fishy was amiss, she somehow rationalized to herself that the lower bet size was a sign of weakness instead of strength. She took her 15 big blind stack and shoved all-in with her JJ. Action folded to the UTG raiser who quickly called with her AA. My player didn’t win her 19 percenter, and she was sent to the rail in 22nd place in a tournament that paid the top 18 players.

The Lessons

1.) Consider your poker reads and your cards separately. Don’t tweak your reads to rationalize playing a pretty looking hand in a bad spot.

2.) If you’re a tournament player, you need endurance…your physical well-being is directly linked to your mental well-being. Make exercising regularly a habit, and make sure you bring sufficient amounts of food and fluids to the tables.

Tony Guerrera is the author of Killer Poker By The Numbers. Visit him online at http://www.killerpokerbythenumbers.com

By Tony Guerrera Two types of odds are important in poker: card odds and payout odds. And payout odds can be broken down into three categories: pot odds, implied odds, and reverse implied odds. Understanding all these types of odds will help you make sound decisions at the tables.

Card Odds

Card odds have to do with hitting poker hands. Suppose you have a flush draw on the turn. Not accounting for reads you may have on your opponents, there are 46 unknown cards in the deck, 9 of which give you a flush. The odds against you hitting your flush are 37:9 (4.11:1).

To draw profitably, your payout odds need to exceed your card odds. In this example, your payout odds need to be at least $4.11:$1.

Pot Odds

Your pot odds are the ratio of the amount of money in the pot to the amount of money you need to call. Let’s take the flush draw example from above. Say the pot is $400 going into the turn, and you have a single opponent who bets $200. $400 + $200 = $600, so you are getting $600:$200 = $3:$1 pot odds.

Implied Odds

Implied odds refer to money that you’ll win on future betting rounds if you hit your draw. Suppose that if you call the $200 and hit your draw, you’ll win $400 more on the river. If that’s the case, you’re receiving an additional $400:$200 = $2:$1 on your preflop call. Accounting for implied odds, you’re getting $5:$1 instead of $3:$1 on your money.

Reverse Implied Odds

Of course, there’s a chance that you hit your flush draw and still lose. Perhaps he hits a better flush, or your flush out gives your opponent a boat or quads. This means you’re actually getting less than $5:$1 on the money. The precise adjustment for reverse implied odds depends heavily on your opponents’ hand distributions and can take awhile to figure out precisely (I remember the work I put in for some of the examples in Killer Poker By The Numbers). Since you usually won’t know exactly how much your opponents will bet anyway, just know that you should get a rough idea of how much you stand to lose and roughly how often you’ll lose it.

Honestly Assess All Situations

The two biggest mistakes that people make when evaluating their payout odds are:

1.) Assuming that their implied odds are bigger than they truly are
2.) Neglecting to take reverse implied odds into account.

Being a pessimist or an optimist won’t do you any good at the poker tables. Instead, be a realist, and watch the profits roll in.

Tony Guerrera is the author of Killer Poker By The Numbers. Visit him online at http://www.killerpokerbythenumbers.com

Adjust Reads From Tight To Loose

No matter what specific variant of poker you’re playing, playing profitable poker is all about mastering the following process:

1. Put your opponents on hand distributions
2. Evaluate your own hand (or put yourself on a hand distribution if you’re playing a game like Blind Man’s Bluff)
3. Predict how your opponents will respond to every possible action you can make
4. Pick the most profitable line of play based on #1-#3

Today, we’ll focus on putting your opponents on hand distributions when you first sit at a table.

Default Distributions
Putting your opponents on hand distributions is all about reading your opponents’ betting patterns and picking off their physical tells. You don’t really have the ability to put your opponents on hand distributions until you’ve carefully observed them play for a few orbits. Does this mean that you should fold the first forty or fifty hands you’re dealt?

Hell no…especially if you’re playing at a shorthanded table or in a tournament. The good news is that you actually have information about players you’ve never seen in your life. Before you even play a single hand, you have all your past poker playing experience to draw upon, meaning that you can assign a default playing profile to each opponent before you see the table play a single hand. This default profile will be the average of all the poker players you typically face…………to read rest of article visit The Poker Betting Column at The Betting Directory.