The Poker Blog

By Tony Guerrera

Counter Intelligence Operations: Deception

If your opponents play systematically, you can eventually break their systems down and deduce counterstrategies to beat them. And as much as poker players love to think that their opponents are bad, the fact is that your opponents aren’t complete morons. If you play systematically, most of your opponents will deduce counterstrategies to beat you.

To consistently win, you need to lean one way while your opponents think you’re leaning the opposite way. You need to induce your opponents into making big mistakes in big pots, and your ally on that front is deception. I’m not talking about the blatantly transparent “weak means strong” and “strong means weak” psychology that makes beginners stick out as much as American pop stars who’ve skated through life without rehab or jail. Instead, I’m talking about employing inherently deceptive betting patterns.

Mapping Actions to Situations

One way that opponents will dissect your game is to associate actions with situations. Suppose you call a bet out of position with nothing, check the turn, and then make a half-pot bluff on the river after your opponent checks behind on the turn. The hand tells your opponent that this betting pattern corresponds to a float. Later, you can catch this opponent off guard by employing this same betting pattern when you have a good hand. You’ll get value from your opponent if he has a mediocre hand, and if you’re really lucky, you might induce your opponent into attempting a rebluff on the river into what’s actually your made hand.

Mapping Situations to Actions

The other way that opponents will dissect your game is to associate situations with actions. After opponents see you play a situation a certain way, many will assume that you always play the same situation the same way. Suppose that you flop bottom set against two opponents, and you’re first to act. You check-call the flop, check-raise the turn, and bet out on the river. Provided they’re paying attention, your foes will now associate this betting pattern with really solid hands. Next time you have a monster, change things up and bet out on the flop, the turn, and the river.

Keep ‘Em Guessing

Once you start playing tougher foes, you can’t play according to a predictable algorithm. And that includes employing a predictable algorithm for mixing up your play. For example, if you play every single hand identically, you’re being predictably deceptive, and your opponents will correctly assume that they’re playing against a random hand every time they’re in a pot with you. You need deception to win, and the best way to be deceptive is to come to the table armed with a wide range of plays.

Tony Guerrera is the author of Killer Poker By The Numbers. Visit him online at http://www.killerpokerbythenumbers.com

By Tony Guerrera

2008 is here. Every New Year, people make resolutions. “I’m going to exercise five times per week.” “I’m going to read a two books per month.” Often, people lack the commitment necessary to follow through, and come February or March, many of these January go-getters will have reverted back to their old habits.

New Year’s resolutions are typically about breaking old habits, and poker exemplifies a setting where breaking old habits is difficult–especially if you massively multitable when playing online. Massively multitabling isn’t inherently bad–I do quite a bit of it myself. But if you’re not careful, you can fall into a rut where you can’t break away from autopilot poker, making it extremely tough to adapt to changing playing conditions. Even if you don’t play eight tables of online poker simultaneously, it’s easy to settle into a comfortable rut where you cling to old ideas, refusing even to consider the potential importance of new, unconventional ideas that challenge what you’ve held dear for so long.

We shouldn’t need a special time of year to change how we think, but sometimes we need a kick in the butt, and the New Year is just that kick. Whether you’re shoveling snow or sipping Mai Tais while catching some rays, the New Year is a great time to initiate the self-improvement process. And with just a little discipline, you can take the new and improved you well beyond February or March.

Since this is a poker article, here are some poker thoughts to take into 2008:

Respect and Enjoy the Poker Playing Process:
Poker hand are all about getting your chips in when you think you have the best of it–and having the best of it is all about the long-term. Sometimes, an opponent with a distribution that you dominate will have a superior hand. Sometimes, you’ll lose even when you get all the chips in as a huge favorite. If you think about the short-term, you’re toast. Regardless of the results, enjoy the intellectual exercise that poker presents.

A Few Extra Seconds of Thought Can Mean a Few Extra Dollars of Profit
Even when a decision seems trivial, take a few moments to consider all the angles. Thoroughly deconstruct things before acting; something that appears to be trivial on the surface can feature many subtle layers of complication beneath the surface.

You Can’t Play If There’s No You To Play
You can’t play if you’re sick or dead. Many players don’t take care of themselves, but you don’t have to join the bandwagon. Avoid all-nighters, eat properly, hydrate yourself, and get some exercise. Take care of yourself physically, and your poker mind will reward you.

May your 2008 feature happiness, good health, and monster profits at the tables…Happy New Year!

Tony Guerrera is the author of Killer Poker By The Numbers. Visit him online at http://www.killerpokerbythenumbers.com

By Tony Guerrera

Blinds are T1000-T2000. You’re in the fifth hour of a no-limit hold’em tournament that’s down to 40 of its 500 original entrants. You have 7 opponents at your table. A new hand is dealt. The under-the-gun player (UTG) limps with a T25,000 stack. The T8,000 stack two to his left shoves all-in. PAction folds to you, and you’re in the big blind with T30,000. You have 99.

Accumulate Chips, But Do So Cautiously

To do well in poker tournaments, you need to accumulate chips. And accumulating chips means getting your chips in when you’re ahead of your opponents’ distributions. With your 99, you’re almost certainly ahead of the all-in player’s distribution. Unfortunately, the UTG limper is still in the hand, and he completely changes the dynamics of the hand. Before making any decisions, you need to consider his hand distribution.

In the absence of any other evidence, you have to assume that the UTG limper has a huge hand. Poker Players who limp from early position when the blinds are high typically have big hands. This is especially true of players with very short stacks, but it’s pretty much true regardless of the limper’s stack size. Early position limpers in high blind tournament play are looking to get value from their premium hole cards, and they assume that they won’t get any action if they raise from early position, figuring that an early position raise would betray the strength of their hand.

Discipline, Discipline, Discipline

If you’re new to the table and know nothing about the UTG limper, you need to lay your 99 down. Honestly, JJ and even QQ are hands that you should probably lay down in this spot. The only way you can justify putting any chips in this pot is if the UTG limper has been a habitual limper…a player who has been limping a few times per orbit.

This article is specifically about early position limpers in high blind tournament play, but as usual, there’s a more generalized lesson to be learned. Whenever you’re in a hand, one seemingly tiny change to a scenario can have a huge effect on your optimal course of action. A player who typically opens to 5 big blinds changes things up and opens to 3.5 big blinds. What’s the significance? Pay attention to every possible detail, and separate the meaningful information from the random smoke that means nothing.

Eat properly, stay hydrated, and get enough rest, so you can play as alertly and effectively as possible!

Tony Guerrera is the author of Killer Poker By The Numbers. Visit him online at http://www.killerpokerbythenumbers.com

By Tony Guerrera

You’re playing poker online, and normally, online poker hands is all about instant gratification (like online anything else). But this time you’re actually stuck waiting for a seat to open up in your game of choice: 6-max $100NL hold’em. After the longest minute of waiting in your life, you take a seat at your new table

Tough Start

Your elation is quickly eclipsed by disappointment. Occasionally, getting caught bluffing or calling with the worst hand can have a positive impact on your table image. However, getting off to a really bad start is a very difficult handicap to shed, and it’s one that you’ve just given yourself in your first 10-15 minutes at the table – having dumped $200 on some very poor play.

You’re not handicapped because of the money you’ve already lost, and how you’ll have to play winning poker hand from this point forward just to have a shot at breaking even for the session. Remember, each session is just part of the proverbial life-long session. Instead, you’re handicapped because of the psychological edge that your opponents currently have over you. They are mentally alert – like sharks honing in for the kill. You are dumbfounded, as if you just took a surprise punch to the stomach.

You look at the lobby to see if any other 6-max $100NL hold’em seats have opened. Unfortunately, all the tables are still full, and you put yourself on the 6-max $100NL hold’em waiting list.

Just Leave

Congratulations for being honest about your situation and realizing that you need to find a different table. With so many poker sites, and so many tables at each site, there’s never a need to battle through a bad table image that you create from a few early mistakes. The mistake that everyone makes here, and the one that I want you to avoid, is continuing to sit and play at the really tough table you’ve created for yourself while you wait for your seat at another table. Leave your bad table immediately, and give yourself a few moments to compose yourself so that you can enter your new table with a refreshed mindset.

Discipline

Not playing beyond your bankroll; not becoming a compulsive gambler; having the willingness to lay down a great hand to an even better hand; table selection. A profitable poker player is a disciplined poker player. When the grass isn’t very green where you currently are, get up and find some greener grass.

Tony Guerrera is the author of Killer Poker By The Numbers. Visit him online at http://www.killerpokerbythenumbers.com

By Tony Guerrera

Getting opponents to fold to your aggression is important in all forms of poker hands, but particularly the shovefest that defines the endgame of most tournaments. The methodology in this article will allow you to estimate your probability of winning uncontested to within a few percent.

Assign Distributions

To estimate your fold equity, first assign hand distributions and calling distributions to your opponents. Suppose action folds to you in the cutoff, and you have 75s. Since your opponents haven’t acted yet, their hand distributions are [All]. If you push all-in, you believe that all your opponents will call with [AA-55, AK-AT].

You know your 2 hole cards, so 50 cards remain. There are 1,225 total combinations of 2 hole cards from a 50 card deck (commit this number to memory). For pocket pairs in your opponents’ distributions, there are 6 combinations, 3 combinations, or 1 combination, depending on if the pocket pair has 0, 1, or 2 cards in common with your hole cards. In this example, [AA-88,66] represent 6 combinations each. And [77,55] represent 3 combinations each. For unpaired hole cards, take the number of the first card available and multiply by the number of the second card available. In this example, your 75s doesn’t counterfeit any of the AK-AT hands, so each of those hands has (4)(4) = 16 combinations.

Multiply

This isn’t exact, but to find the probability that all your opponents will fold, simply multiply all your opponents’ folding probabilities. For example, if P(A) is probability that Player A will fold and P(B) is the probability that Player B will fold, the probability that both players will fold is P(A)P(B).

In this example, each player has the same calling distribution, so P(Fold) is be the same for each. To find P(Fold), first find the total number of calling combinations. In this example, that number is 118. Since there are 1225 combinations total, this means that your opponents are folding 1225 – 118 = 1,107 combinations. P(Fold) for each poker player is 1,107/1,225. The probability that all three players will fold is (1,107/1,225)(1,107/1,225)(1,107/1,225).

Of course, these really big numbers are tough to multiply in your head. So to get a quick estimate, say that 1,107/1,225 is close to 1,100/1,200 which is close to 11/12 which is about .92 which is about .9. (.9)(.9)(.9) is .729, meaning that you’ll win uncontested about 73% of the time.

Be Comfortable With Estimating

73% might not be the true percentage that all your opponents will fold. But at most, it’s only off by a few percent. When you’re in the heat of battle, you need to make educated decisions in compressed time frames. Using estimates is a great way to make sure that you’re at least in the ballpark. Play smart, and enjoy the rewards!

Tony Guerrera is the author of Killer Poker By The Numbers. Visit him online at http://www.killerpokerbythenumbers.com

By Tony Guerrera

Very early this morning (11/28/2007), I was coaching a shorthanded $100 no-limit hold’em player on Bodog Poker. Because I was sick and trying to keep track of all three of his tables, I don’t remember the precise board poker hands involved. But I do remember the action that took place.

The flop was something like 9?6?3?. I just remember that it was a nine-high board, and that the board was all hearts. My player had QJ, and after raising preflop from late position, he was heads-up with position. Action went check-check on the flop (you don’t want to continuation bet 100% of the time). An offsuit queen fell on the turn. The early position player checked, my player bet around $4 into an approximately $6 pot, and his opponent raised to about $9.

Before I had a chance to tell my player that his pair of queens was no good, my player said something like “what the hell can this guy have…this guy has to be putting a move on me…I call.” The river was some non-heart. My player’s opponent led about 1/3 pot, and my player instacalled. My head was buried in my hands, and I didn’t need to see the showdown, but I did want to see if his opponent had two pair, trips, or a flushy flush. I looked at my screen, and saw that his opponent had Q9…two pair.

The player I coach is a winning player, but his game has some problems. Occasionally, one of them is not giving opponents credit when they show aggression on the turn and the river…especially when they haven’t shown much interest in the hand to that point. Since working with me, he’s much better about it, but occasionally, he gets stubborn and thinks that everyone is suddenly “master of turn and river buffs.” And of course, once he gets stubborn, I get to say “see, I told you so” after the showdown…it’s amazing that I get paid to scold people older than myself!

Most poker players aren’t very tricky…especially if you’re playing $200NL or below. They don’t like risking lots of chips on naked bluffs. Bets on the turn and the river represent more monetary risk because the bigger size of the pot demands bigger bets. If an opponent is making large bets on the turn and the river, or if an opponent raises you on the turn or the river, that player has at least two pair. This is the default profile you should assign all opponents. Only assume that a player is making moves when he’s habitually aggressive. If a player only responds to aggression with aggression on the turn and the river periodically, then credit him with the goods and move on.

Tony Guerrera is the author of Killer Poker By The Numbers. Visit him online at http://www.killerpokerbythenumbers.com

By Tony Guerrera

You’re playing no-limit Texas Hold’em you need good poker strategy. The board is KD 5D 2H, and you have AD TD. Your opponent bets $20 into a $40 pot, and you call. The turn is the 6D. Your opponent checks, you bet $30 into the $80 pot with your nut flush, and your opponent folds.

You weren’t paid off, but don’t sulk too much. You just got some valuable information: your opponent seems apt to lay down hands against suspected made draws. When drawing against him, you’ll need to reduce your implied odds estimates. Drawing won’t be very profitable against him (if at all), but a little creativity will allow you to make substantial profits from him…

Represent!

If your opponent associates a third diamond falling with you having a flush and is willing to lay down his hand to a bet, does it matter if you actually have a flush? Doyle Brunson said it best: “Poker is a game of people played with cards.”

Poker is about much more than your own hole cards. It’s about what hole cards you put your opponents on, and it’s about your knowledge of what your opponents think of you. If you know that an opponent will lay down strong hands to a suspected flush whenever you bet after the third to a suit falls, then you don’t actually need to have the flush. No matter what your hole cards are, you can play the hand as if you have a flush draw…even if you don’t!

Cards that look to hit you hand (regardless of whether they actually do) are referred to as Phantom Outs (I don’t know the first person to have used this term, but I have a strong inkling that it’s my boy, John Vorhaus). Phantom out bluffs are an important part of any advanced player’s arsenal.

Wield Wisely, And Know When To Defend

After learning about advanced maneuvers such as phantom out bluffs, it’s enticing to try them in a wide situations…even those in which they won’t be profitable. The key to using phantom out bluffs profitably is to use them against opponents who are willing to fold. Those who respect aggression on the turn and the river are your primary targets.

Because phantom out bluffs can be highly lucrative, it’s important to know which of your opponents are capable of such trickery themselves. When holding hands like top-pair-top-kicker against tricky opponents capable of phantom out bluffs, adopt passive lines of play and allow your opponents to bluff themselves into oblivion.

Tony Guerrera is the author of Killer Poker By The Numbers. Visit him online at http://www.killerpokerbythenumbers.com

By Tony Guerrera

The results of today’s top online multitable tournament players are pretty much equivalent to getting involved in a bunch of double up situations in which you have an edge of at least 60%. Taking well-timed, calculated risks is the name of the game.

Winner-take-all satellites fall into the same category as tournaments with top-heavy cash payouts. To succeed, you need to accumulate chips from the beginning. Play scared, and you’ll play without winning a seat. When it’s winner-take-all, you need to play to win.

As the percentage of poker players that win seats increases, your strategy will change. Suppose you’re in a 20-player tournament in which the top 5 players get the same exact prize…

Fifth = Fourth = Third = Second = First

In such a tournament, realize that it doesn’t matter whether you get fifth, fourth, third, second, or first. To win a 20-player tournament outright requires about 4.32 double-ups. To get to the heads-up match even with your foe requires about 3.32 double-ups. To get into the top 5 with the same number of chips as everyone else only requires 2 double-ups!!

Of course, you’ll be losing money to the blinds every round, so you’ll need to poke your head in here and there and play some quality small pot poker to stay afloat. And if you play some really good small pot poker hands, you can accumulate chips without even having to worry about risking your tournament life.

But if you’re stuck in a tournament where your opponents won’t allow you to play tons of smallball, realize that you only need to win two big confrontations, meaning that you can wait for a much bigger edge in those confrontations than you would wait for in a tournament with a top-heavy payout structure. It’s entirely reasonable to wait for opportunities in which you are close to a 70% favorite when the chips go in because you have more than enough time to wait for such opportunities.

The Flatter The Payout, The More You Can Wait

Between the typical top heavy and flat payout tournaments are tournaments with linear payouts. An example of a tournament with a linear payout structure would be something like a 30-player $30+$3 sit-n-go that pays $225 for first, $195 for second, $165 for third, $135 for fourth, $105 for fifth, and $75 for sixth. In these tournaments, you should be willing to risk your tournament life with something around a 65% edge. Survival is somewhat important in these tournaments, but it isn’t quite as valuable as survival in flat payout tournaments.

The moral of it all: if you play a tournament without considering the payout structure, you won’t be playing the tournament optimally.

Tony Guerrera is the author of Killer Poker By The Numbers. Visit him online at http://www.killerpokerbythenumbers.com

By Tony Guerrera

Suppose you’re playing six-handed $100 buy-in no-limit hold’em. You’re dealt AH KS under the gun. You raise to $3. The button and the blinds call, making the pot $12 going into the flop. The flop is AD JS 3S. The blinds check to you, you bet pot, the button calls, and the blinds fold. The pot is $36, and the turn is the 9H.. You bet pot, and the button calls. The pot is $108. The river is the 2S. You go all-in for $49, and your opponent calls. Did you win this hand?

Probably not. Many players underestimate their opponents and assume they will call large, pot-sized bets with top pair and a weak kicker – or even a lesser pair. However, making large pot-sized pots is generally not the way to get value from top pair/top kicker (TPTK) against most opponents. If you have TPTK or an overpair, pot-sized bets generally constrain your opponents’ calling distributions to hands that all have you beaten.

Every Made Poker Hand Is Not a Double Up

If you make a bet that constrains your opponents’ calling distributions to hands that are all better than yours, then you will lose money in the long run when playing top pair or overpairs. And if you’re losing money with these hands, you’re a losing player. The key to getting value from your good (but vulnerable) hands is realizing that your goal isn’t to double up every time you’re in a pot.

Instead of making large pot-sized bets that constrain your opponents’ calling distributions and possibly leave you pot-committed, make bets that are smaller. Make bets that increase your opponents’ calling ranges substantially, so that the hands you’re trying to get value from are actually ahead of your opponents’ calling ranges. Also make bets that don’t leave you pot-committed when your opponents have you crushed.

You won’t double-up nearly as often, but you also won’t be getting stacked with TPTK and overpairs against players you’ve misjudged. And realize that you will be winning pots that are larger than average. Instead of making lots of large, discontinuous jumps, your stack will be something more like a tank that moves slowly (but surely) towards its destination.

When To Go For The Kill

Of course, it’s still important to seek opportunities to go for the kill. When you face opponents who will call pot-sized bets with very marginal holdings, recognize and capitalize appropriately. Also recognize situations when your opponents have very good hands that they will call substantially larger bets with. When you have your opponents beaten in these situations, make them pay – possibly by overbetting the pot.

Piece by piece will be your general mentality. But as always, keep your mind open!

Tony Guerrera is the author of Killer Poker By The Numbers. Visit him online at http://www.killerpokerbythenumbers.com

By Tony Guerrera

Only reraise with QQ+, and your opponents will put you on AA, KK+, or QQ+ when you reraise. By effectively playing your huge hands face up, you offer your opponents huge implied odds and allow them to fold easily if they don’t improve to two-pair or better - not exactly a good poker strategy formula for profitably playing bit pocket pairs.

Generally, overpairs in today’s deeply stacked no-limit hold’em cash games don’t win in giant pots. They are either crushed by two-pair or better or facing something like a 12-outer (against which they are 56% to win). The equity of overpairs in giant pots is horrible – especially when your opponents know you have one.

Even when your opponents don’t know what you have, you can’t expect to win giant pots with your overpairs. But at least you can position yourself to win pots that are larger than average. Your two options towards this end are:

1.) Never Reraise
2.) Reraise More

Never reraising disguises your poker hand strength, but it can lead to tricky multiway pots. Never reraising isn’t necessarily bad. Just know what you’re getting yourself into.
Reraising more is the other option. Here’s my big secret regarding reraising:

Reraise With QQ+, and Toss In Random Reraise Bluffs With Random Hands

When increasing their reraising distributions, many players introduce hands like AK, AQ, JJ, and TT. When they really start turning up the heat, they toss in AJ, 99, and 88. These are excellent reraising hands against aggressive opponents in tournaments when you’re shortstacked. But in deeply stacked cash games, reraising with these same hands can put you into some troublesome situations. Often, you’ll extract more value with these hands by playing them somewhat passively against a preflop raiser.

If you’re losing value by reraising with hands slightly worse then QQ, the real goal of your reraises is to win pots without having to see a flop. Therefore, reraising with bad cards is okay. Not only is it okay, but it’s also optimal. Play your very good hands passively to extract maximal value, and play your bad hands aggressively to increase your reraising frequency.

I’m willing to reraise with random cards in random situations. But usually, I reraise with low-medium suited connectors and one-gaps when I’ll have position postflop. That way, I have some backup plans if my reraises are called. And after awhile, you can begin reraising with hands like AK and JJ for value. At this point, your opponents should be sufficiently off balance, and the profits should start rolling in.

Tony Guerrera is the author of Killer Poker By The Numbers. Visit him online at http://www.killerpokerbythenumbers.com