Archive for January, 2008

The G-Spot: Pleasure Your Poker Playing Profits - 2

Tuesday, January 29th, 2008

By By Tony Guerrera

Betting the River

If you don’t think, you can’t win. Players tend to focus on tough calls when it comes to big poker decisions. But really, every decision requires careful thought. If you have the stone-cold, unbeatable nuts, you still need to put reads on your opponents, so you can figure out the most profitable line of play.

You Have the Best Hand; Should You Bet?

Suppose you’re in a hand of limit hold’em. The board is K♣T♠7♥8♣2♣. On the flop and the turn, your opponent checks to you, you bet, and he calls. Your opponent checks again on the river. You have KQ, and you think that your opponent missed a draw, has a pair less then tens, has one pair with {KJ, K9, QT, JT, T9, QQ, JJ}, has two pair with {KT, T8, or 87}, or a set with {TT, 88, 77}. With all the missed draws, you’re clearly ahead of your opponent’s hand distribution. But what’s really important here is your opponent’s calling/raising distribution.

If your opponent calls or raises with {KJ, K9, QT, JT, T9, QQ, JJ} (58 hand combinations that you beat) and {KT, T8, or 87, TT, 88, 77} (33 hand combinations that beat you), and you fold to a raise, then the expected profit to be derived from betting is 25/91 big bets (about .2747 big bets).

However, if you’re against a slightly different opponent who’ll fold T9, JT, and QT, your opponent’s calling distribution contains only 25 combinations that you beat compared to the 33 that you don’t. Though you’re way ahead of your opponent’s hand distribution, you’re behind is calling/raising distribution. Betting here results in an expected loss of 8/58 big bets (.1379 big bets).

Seemingly Small Differences Can Be Huge

.2747 and -.1379 don’t seem like huge numbers–along with the .4126 difference between them. But limit hold’em is all about being on the right side of many marginal situations. And through that lens, taking only a few hands out of your opponent’s calling/raising distribution changed things dramatically. Reading opponents typically applies to putting them on hand distributions, but really, reading opponents is about putting them on hand and action distributions. You can beat 99% of your opponent’s hands, but if your opponent is only going to call you with the one hand that has you beaten, then betting on the river is a losing play. Careful thinking on the river–when bets are typically largest–will contribute positively to your bottom line: may all your value bets carry an expected profit!

Tony Guerrera is the author of Killer Poker By The Numbers. Visit him online at http://www.killerpokerbythenumbers.com

WSOP Rake Race

The G-Spot: Pleasure Your Poker Playing Profits

Thursday, January 10th, 2008

By Tony Guerrera

Counter Intelligence Operations: Deception

If your opponents play systematically, you can eventually break their systems down and deduce counterstrategies to beat them. And as much as poker players love to think that their opponents are bad, the fact is that your opponents aren’t complete morons. If you play systematically, most of your opponents will deduce counterstrategies to beat you.

To consistently win, you need to lean one way while your opponents think you’re leaning the opposite way. You need to induce your opponents into making big mistakes in big pots, and your ally on that front is deception. I’m not talking about the blatantly transparent “weak means strong” and “strong means weak” psychology that makes beginners stick out as much as American pop stars who’ve skated through life without rehab or jail. Instead, I’m talking about employing inherently deceptive betting patterns.

Mapping Actions to Situations

One way that opponents will dissect your game is to associate actions with situations. Suppose you call a bet out of position with nothing, check the turn, and then make a half-pot bluff on the river after your opponent checks behind on the turn. The hand tells your opponent that this betting pattern corresponds to a float. Later, you can catch this opponent off guard by employing this same betting pattern when you have a good hand. You’ll get value from your opponent if he has a mediocre hand, and if you’re really lucky, you might induce your opponent into attempting a rebluff on the river into what’s actually your made hand.

Mapping Situations to Actions

The other way that opponents will dissect your game is to associate situations with actions. After opponents see you play a situation a certain way, many will assume that you always play the same situation the same way. Suppose that you flop bottom set against two opponents, and you’re first to act. You check-call the flop, check-raise the turn, and bet out on the river. Provided they’re paying attention, your foes will now associate this betting pattern with really solid hands. Next time you have a monster, change things up and bet out on the flop, the turn, and the river.

Keep ‘Em Guessing

Once you start playing tougher foes, you can’t play according to a predictable algorithm. And that includes employing a predictable algorithm for mixing up your play. For example, if you play every single hand identically, you’re being predictably deceptive, and your opponents will correctly assume that they’re playing against a random hand every time they’re in a pot with you. You need deception to win, and the best way to be deceptive is to come to the table armed with a wide range of plays.

Tony Guerrera is the author of Killer Poker By The Numbers. Visit him online at http://www.killerpokerbythenumbers.com

Play Online Poker at Full Tilt Poker

Titan Poker guarantees $10,000,000 in tournament pool

Thursday, January 3rd, 2008

Titan Poker, the largest poker room on the iPoker Network, now guarantees more than $10,000,000 in monthly online poker tournaments.

The guaranteed prize pools at Titan Poker are rising on a weekly basis, based on the rapidly growing number of players that regularly play poker at the popular online poker room.

Titan Poker staged a $1,000,000 Guaranteed Prize tournament on December 9, as part of its European Championship of Online Poker 2007 (ECOOP) tournament series. The highly successful ECOOP tournaments proved to be this year’s biggest online poker event with more than $2,500,000 in Guaranteed Prizes in ten consecutive days of poker tournaments.

Every Sunday night Titan Poker stages a huge guaranteed prize tournament with $200,000 in cash prizes. Huge cash prizes are also awarded at tournaments that take place on Fridays and Saturdays, and daily tournaments award prizes suitable to poker players with different gaming preferences and budgets.

Titan Poker regularly awards its players with seats at the world’s most well-known poker tournaments. Titan Poker players have played at the World Series of Poker in Las Vegas, international tournaments of the World Poker Tour, and at various European Poker Tour events.

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The G-Spot: New Year; Fresh Perspectives

Thursday, January 3rd, 2008

By Tony Guerrera

2008 is here. Every New Year, people make resolutions. “I’m going to exercise five times per week.” “I’m going to read a two books per month.” Often, people lack the commitment necessary to follow through, and come February or March, many of these January go-getters will have reverted back to their old habits.

New Year’s resolutions are typically about breaking old habits, and poker exemplifies a setting where breaking old habits is difficult–especially if you massively multitable when playing online. Massively multitabling isn’t inherently bad–I do quite a bit of it myself. But if you’re not careful, you can fall into a rut where you can’t break away from autopilot poker, making it extremely tough to adapt to changing playing conditions. Even if you don’t play eight tables of online poker simultaneously, it’s easy to settle into a comfortable rut where you cling to old ideas, refusing even to consider the potential importance of new, unconventional ideas that challenge what you’ve held dear for so long.

We shouldn’t need a special time of year to change how we think, but sometimes we need a kick in the butt, and the New Year is just that kick. Whether you’re shoveling snow or sipping Mai Tais while catching some rays, the New Year is a great time to initiate the self-improvement process. And with just a little discipline, you can take the new and improved you well beyond February or March.

Since this is a poker article, here are some poker thoughts to take into 2008:

Respect and Enjoy the Poker Playing Process:
Poker hand are all about getting your chips in when you think you have the best of it–and having the best of it is all about the long-term. Sometimes, an opponent with a distribution that you dominate will have a superior hand. Sometimes, you’ll lose even when you get all the chips in as a huge favorite. If you think about the short-term, you’re toast. Regardless of the results, enjoy the intellectual exercise that poker presents.

A Few Extra Seconds of Thought Can Mean a Few Extra Dollars of Profit
Even when a decision seems trivial, take a few moments to consider all the angles. Thoroughly deconstruct things before acting; something that appears to be trivial on the surface can feature many subtle layers of complication beneath the surface.

You Can’t Play If There’s No You To Play
You can’t play if you’re sick or dead. Many players don’t take care of themselves, but you don’t have to join the bandwagon. Avoid all-nighters, eat properly, hydrate yourself, and get some exercise. Take care of yourself physically, and your poker mind will reward you.

May your 2008 feature happiness, good health, and monster profits at the tables…Happy New Year!

Tony Guerrera is the author of Killer Poker By The Numbers. Visit him online at http://www.killerpokerbythenumbers.com

Poker at 32 Red

Bad Beat Jackpot players claim millions

Thursday, January 3rd, 2008

Online poker players have one more reason to break out the champagne this New Year, thanks to Absolute Poker. The online poker room recently released its 2007 Bad Beat Jackpot figures and the numbers are undeniably impressive.

“2007 was an extremely profitable year for our Bad Beat Jackpot players,” stated David Clainer, Senior Vice President for Absolute Poker. “In just six months, we introduced the Bad Beat Jackpot game to US players, handed out over $6.5 million in Bad Beat Jackpot winnings, and broke an industry record.”

2007 was an extremely profitable year for our Bad Beat Jackpot players Absolute Poker introduced Bad Beat Jackpot to its lineup of online poker games on June 22nd, 2007. Since then, Absolute Poker has become one of the most popular destinations for players looking to grab a piece of the multi-million dollar Bad Beat Jackpot pie. A glance at the 2007 Bad Beat Jackpot data released today reveals the following numbers:

  • 39 - The number of jackpots that have been hit since Absolute Poker launched Bad Beat Jackpot on June 22nd.
  • $8,555,664 - The total value of all jackpots hit

  • $6,581,280 - The total value of jackpot money won by players

  • $821,670.69 - The August 29th Bad Beat Jackpot that shattered all industry records, including the largest Bad Beat Jackpot record of $739,621 previously held by Party Poker.

Bad Beat Jackpot is just like regular Texas Hold’em but with a slight twist. When seated at a Bad Beat Jackpot table, if a player loses a Texas Hold’em hand holding four 8s or anything better, they’ll win a large piece of the Bad Beat Jackpot.

To help the jackpot build, $0.50 is collected from qualifying hands at Bad Beat Jackpot tables. The jackpot keeps growing until someone hits a qualifying bad beat, at which time a large percentage of it is distributed amongst the bad beat victim and the participants in the online poker hand. The next player to lose a hand holding four 8s or anything better will win a large piece of the new jackpot. The participants in the bad beat hand will also share in the jackpot.

Bad Beat Jackpot

Know EXACTLY What Your Opponents Are Holding

Wednesday, January 2nd, 2008

This article is provided free of charge by www.RoyRounder.com . “Roy Rounder” is the pen name of a successful professional poker player and author.

To skyrocket your Texas Holdem winnings, join his free newsletter. Just click here.


***QUESTION FROM A READER***

Roy, Your newsletters have greatly helped my play I used to be a tight wad player. Now that I have changed gears (play more aggressively) in my head its thrown players off balance a lot. I take notes on my friends poker play so it helps me remember betting patterns etc.

I am really good at sniffing out stone cold bluffs (I’ve been known to call with queen high before) or strong hands that are hard to recognize like small sets and low and medium straights. I’ve even folded full houses before knowing that other players have four of a kind by their erratic breathing and confidence in their voice and shaky hands.

However I need advanced improvement on reading tells and avoiding traps. Other then the ones mentioned in Caro’s book of poker tells it is a little outdated. Especially I have had also a problem with reading people when they play medium strength hands aggressively - especially in casino tournaments unlike my weekly poker games with my friends.

After a while you learn your friends play but in tournaments they are all strangers how to get a read on them? Some players bet medium strength (not weak strength hands) aggressively. Does your e-book cover these questions?

Does it also have a section on poker tells as well. I’ve played players giving off false tells as a trap such as acting weak when weak and strong when strong? My friends do this as well giving off false tells doing the opposite of the opposite of what you would expect - we’ve read the same books.

Thanks, A.C.

***MY COMMENTS***

I want to start off by saying CONGRATULATIONS, my friend.

Calling bluffs with a queen high and laying down full boats is a sign of a BALLSY player… That level of faith in your abilities is a CRUCIAL step towards a successful poker career.

I am also impressed by your choice to take notes on your opponents. I notice that there are a lot of players who CLAIM to want to be better, but don’t take the TIME to do what is needed.

As far as your question about reading poker tells against players you aren’t familiar with… here’s what you can do:

When you are at a new table, it is obviously VERY important that you pay close attention to the GAME and to the PLAYERS right away.

Most players… when they sit down… get so caught up in themselves and their own heads that they don’t even make it to this first step…

To put it bluntly: “SIT DOWN, SHUT UP, and WATCH.”

Don’t start running your mouth… don’t try to act cool… and don’t daydream. The first few minutes you’re at the table is perhaps the most IMPORTANT time there.

Once you’ve done this, be sure not to rush into any hands. In fact, I recommend NOT getting involved in any hands at the very beginning… and here’s why:

If you’re an experienced tournament player, you know that most players are eliminated from tournaments when they are in “shuffle times” (when they are moving from table to table).

It is at these times when the BIGGEST MISTAKES are usually made.

Let’s say that you sit down a new table. You may have been playing at a tight table where you could buy a lot of pots…

You sit at this new table… and fall right back into your betting pattern. You make a bold move, try to buy a pot, and get burnt because THIS TABLE is much LOOSER than the last one.

This puts you at a disadvantage right away… one which you might not recover from.

When I move to a new table… or begin at a game where I don’t know the players… I always wait at least 3-4 rounds of betting before I get involved in a hand… and a lot of times I wait EVEN LONGER.

This gives me a chance to get to know my opponents… BEFORE I risk any chips.

I call it my “Study Period.”

Of course, the WHOLE GAME is a study period in itself… but these first few hands is 100% devoted towards just watching my poker opponents.

And here’s the added benefit:

If I don’t know my competition, THEY don’t know ME, either. By taking my time and doing my study period, I learn about THEM… but they DON’T LEARN ABOUT ME.

If anything, they just ASSUME that I’m a tight player…

That means within 10 minutes, I immediately have an advantage over all the other players at the table… even if I haven’t won a pot yet… or even played a hand.

OK, so when you do your study period, what should you look for?

A lot of newbies think it’s all in the face and in the eyes… which is a mistake.

Most poker tells are the COMBINATION of an entire set of movements and behavior…

On TV– especially in movies– poker tells are portrayed as something as simple as the twitch of a nose or the movement of a leg.

Kind of like in “Rounders,” when Mike McDee figures out Teddy KGB based on how he ate his cookies.

TAKE NOTE…

For the most part, this type of portrayal of poker tells is a TOTAL MYTH.

If you think you can figure out a player’s hand just based on how he blinks, you’re in for a rude awakening… and you’ll lose your chips fast.

In REAL LIFE (where you play), tells are more complex…

…VERY RARELY are they “cut and dry.”

When you study your opponents… here are the things you should think about:

1. Past Play

Think about how this player has acted in the past…

Is he usually strong or weak?

Aggressive or timid?

Smart or dumb?

And so on…

2. Timing

If your instinct tells you that a player deliberated for a long time trying to make a choice, chances are that his hand isn’t too strong.

However, you should also note how long he has taken to play in the past, to make sure that the move wasn’t just a regular timing move.

3. Posture

Especially with bad players, the posture of a player is a key tell that will reveal a lot about a hand…

If the person leans back, that USUALLY represents strength. If he leans forward, that USUALLY represents weakness.

Once again, poker tells aren’t black and white. It’s a gray area, where everything needs to be considered together…

4. Bet Amount

If a player tends to make small bets, but then places an unusually large bet, he could be holding a strong hand. Or he may be trying to buy the pot.

Always watch for irregularities in betting patterns… most amateurs don’t mix up their bets enough, which gives you an easy edge if you pay attention.

5. Pulse

This is one of the only “body tells” that I find works most of the time. You can usually see the intensity of a player’s pulse by looking closely at his neck.

Often if a player gets “shaky,” he usually has a great hand. If the player is cool and collected, it’s probably a fake.

6. Your Gut Feeling

Depending on your poker experience, your gut will often be your best guide…

I’ve been playing poker for so long now that when I sit down with newbies, I can usually read the players almost INSTANTLY, without much thought.

It just comes naturally… and it will come naturally to you, too… once you gain a lot of experience under your belt… and once you spend enough time studying the game.

With the pros, of course, you’ve got to be much more careful, because they DO know how to disguise their tells and play their hands in an unpredictable manner.

So, to recap:

1. When you sit down to play at a table of strangers… especially in a tournament… take your time before becoming involved in a hand.

2. Go through a careful “Study Period.” During this time, SHUT UP and STUDY the players intensely.

3. When you start betting, watch for the six things we discussed: past play, timing, posture, bet amount, pulse, and your own gut instincts.

Finally… there’s one more step to add…

And that is:

NEVER REVEAL THE WAY YOU THINK.

Here’s what I mean…

Poker is truly a BATTLE of minds. The tells we’ve been discussing are mostly simple REFLECTIONS of how a player is thinking at the time of a bet. For some reason, it’s a natural tendency in all of us to share our thoughts at the poker table… ESPECIALLY when we aren’t involved in hands.

This is more common during “home games” than in tournament play or casinos…

For instance, let’s say there’s a heads up match between Don and John after the river card.

Don goes all in…

The river was the third diamond on the board. John has trip Aces.

(Of course, a flush would beat John’s three of a kind.)

Anyway… John’s has to decide whether Don is a on a bluff… or if he caught the diamond flush.

THIS is where everyone starts screwing up:

Since Don is all in… and can’t change his mind… John shows his trip Aces to the other guys at the table who aren’t in the hand.

He says, “Man, I don’t know whether to call. Don made a pre-flop raise… I think he’s just pot-committed and is trying to buy it.”

Someone else might chime in, “Yea, but he seems like he’s got the flush. Did you notice how he’s been quiet the whole hand?”

Someone else says, “C’mon wuss. Just call his bet and go all-in… I’m getting tired and want to get going.” And so on…

Do you see where I’m going with this?

John should NEVER show his Aces to the other guys of course… aside from being bad poker etiquette, now they just saw an entire “free hand” and got to see how John acted the whole way with his three of a kind.

The next guy just revealed that he’s been watching how SILENT Don has been… which clues everyone in on how this guy thinks about tells. Now you know to be very conscious about how much you talk around this player.

And the third guy reveals an attitude of carelessness… which means as soon as I caught a good hand I’d try to get in a heads-up match with him and go all in… because there’s a decent chance he’ll call.

When you reveal your THINKING PROCESS, you’re simply GIVING AWAY tons of crucial information… FOR NO REASON.

The other players at the table with pick up a read on you quickly… both consciously and subconsciously.

So don’t do it.

Period.

As you know, Texas Holdem is filled with TONS of techniques and strategies like these, that anyone can understand if they just take the time to learn them.

Unlike popular belief, poker is NOT about having natural talent.

It’s about LEARNING– through experience, analysis, and expertise– how to MASTER the game.

To develop YOUR poker genius, subscribe to my one-of-a-kind poker strategy newsletter. You’ll gain the exepertise you need to TURBO-CHARGE your winnings instantly.

Best of all, it’s 100% FREE! Just Click Here.

Your New Friend,

Roy Rounder