The Poker Blog

By Tony Guerrera

In cash games, you can afford to lay low while you observe your opponents and obtain extensive book on them. But what do you do when a tournament just starts, when new players are moved to your tournament table, or when you’re tournament table breaks and you’re forced to move to another table? In tournaments, you can’t afford to sit back idly; one missed opportunity can mean the difference between a huge payday and no payday whatsoever, and certain blind structures simply don’t give you the time to wait. And though you can theoretically sit tight early in cash games, what happens what you get AA the first hand of a session and an opponent shows aggression on the turn and the river: are you ahead or behind?

Fortunately, if you have a bit of playing experience under your belt, you actually have information about your opponents before you even sit at the table. That’s right…you have information about players you’ve never seen in your life! Before you play a single hand, you can draw upon all your past poker playing experience. You can assume that your opponents play like the average of all foes you’ve encountered in your poker-playing life.

Since poker evolves, the default profile I assign to my opponents now (April 2008) isn’t the same as the default profile I assigned to my opponents two years ago. And most likely, it won’t be the same as the default profile I assign to my opponents two years from now. It’s important to monitor and update constantly the default player profiles you assign to unknown foes. If you play in different venues, it will probably be the case that you’ll have default profiles that you assign depending on where you’re playing. For example, I use different default player profiles for each online poker room as a function of stakes, and I also have a different default player profile that I use when playing in an LA card room.

The more accurate the default profiles you use are, the less trouble you’ll encounter against fresh faces. However, default profiles are ultimately not enough. No matter how good a default profile is, you must identify as quickly as possible how each of your opponents deviates. As soon as your opponents show their true colors, you can then assign them to more specific player profiles–let’s call these more specific player profiles archetypes (In Killer Poker Shorthanded (Kensington, 2007), John Vorhaus and I put forth several player archetypes that we commonly encounter in shorthanded NLHE cash games. Check them out if you’re looking for some examples).

Archetypes are a step forward, but they still aren’t enough. After all, archetypes are just slightly more specific versions of default player profiles. The task of profiling opponents is never really done. But nonetheless, using good default profiles is the foundation for success when playing against so-called unknowns.

Tony Guerrera is the author of Killer Poker By The Numbers. Visit him online at http://www.killerpokerbythenumbers.com

Take part in the 2008 Irish Winter Festival this October Bank Holiday weekend (October 25th-27th) for a weekend of total poker bliss. Headlined by the Irish Masters main event (with an estimated prizepool of €1 MILLION) and a full side event schedule, the Irish Winter Festival promises to be another must-attend event on the international poker calendar.

Starting on Sunday the 13th April there will be a weekly Grand Final every Sunday night @ 10pm on paddypowerpoker.com. If you want to be in with a chance to win one of our $3,500 packages then check out our online qualifiers page.

Irish Winter Festival 2008

• €1 Million Estimated Prize Pool
• Irish Masters €1,500 Buy–in + €150 Registration
• 800 player capacity
• Citywest Hotel, Dublin
• Oct 25th – 27th 2008 (First Hand dealt at 2pm on the 25th )

During this long bank holiday weekend, 32Red Poker is holding a series of exclusive tournaments. Players can dip into their RedBack (32Red Poker’s loyalty points system) reserves to gain entry to these impressive top-dollar tournaments. New players needn’t worry though - they can buy-in through a nominal fee and battle against 32Red Poker’s most experienced members.

Here’s a breakdown of what’s on offer:

Tonight (Friday 2nd May)

“The Friday Late One” - Guaranteed $1,000. Entry: 1,100 RedBacks or $10 + $1. Starts 22:00 BST.

Saturday (3rd May)

“Be the Bounty” - Guaranteed $1,000. Entry: 1,100 RedBacks or $10 + $1. Starts 21:30 BST.

Sunday (4th May)

“Play for $2k Sunday” - Guaranteed $2,000. Entry: 2,200 RedBacks or $20 + £2. 17:00 BST.

Monday (5th May)

“Quickfire Snooker Special” - Guaranteed $500. Entry: 550 RedBacks or $5 + $0.50. 14:30 BST.

“Snooker Final Session Special” - Guaranteed $500. Entry: 550 RedBacks or $5 + $0.50. 20:30 BST.

UltimateBet to Give Away Record Number of Free Seats to Pokers Biggest Main Event

Players invited to compete in month-long contest for multiple shots at free WSOP* seats

They say you cant put a price on the World Series of Poker* experience. UltimateBet.com is taking that sentiment a little too literally by handing out a large number of Main Event seats for free. UltimateBet.com today announced a new promotion that solidifies the poker site as the best place to win a free seat in the series.

This is an historic promotion for fans of the worlds greatest game, stated UltimateBet spokesperson George MacLean. “We’re handing out loads of Main Event seats and online poker fans can win one just by doing what they love playing poker. “

Annie Duke, UltimateBets new Cardroom Consultant, created the Ultimate Main Event Giveaway promotion so that more online poker players are able to experience Texas Holdem on the worlds biggest stage alongside pokers best pros.

To qualify for the promotion, UltimateBet players must simply play in any real-money poker Sit n Go, ring game or multi-table tournament at UltimateBet.com between April 24th and May 23rd and climb their way up the Main Event Giveaway leader board.

At the end of the qualifying period, the player who has earned the most RAI$E status points will automatically secure a $12,000 Main Event prize package featuring the $10,000 buy-in and $2,000 for travel accommodations.

But thats just the start of UltimateBets Main Event generosity. Players ranking 2nd through 70th on the leader board will play in an exclusive freeroll that features a prize pool of seven additional $12,000 Main Event packages.

In an effort to send as many players as possible to Las Vegas for the worlds most prestigious poker tournament, UltimateBet is opening the floodgates to even more Main Event seats through a series of freerolls. On Saturday May 24th, the online poker site is holding a 25-seat Guaranteed Tournament where at least 25 Main Event prize packages will be won.

Players ranking 71st through 225th on the leader board will win their spot in the $500+30 tournament. Those ranking 226th through 3427th will be divided into five separate freerolls where hundreds of additional opportunities to win a spot in the 25-seat Guaranteed Tournament are on the line.

More information on UltimateBets Main Event Giveaway can be found at:-

The best online tournament series just keeps getting better.

In August of 2006, FTOPS I debuted with eight events and a combined guaranteed prize pool of more than $1 million. This past February, FTOPS VII awarded more than $15 million in prize money over 20 events. FTOPS VIII promises to be the biggest FTOPS ever.

24 Events – More Than $10 Million Guaranteed!

Twenty-four chances to bring home FTOPS gold; more than 10 million reasons to give it everything you’ve got. Starting on May 7th, FTOPS VIII offers 24 events with a guaranteed prize pool worth more than $10 million. This series features a wide selection of exciting tournaments, each hosted by a Full Tilt Pro, including:

• The massive $2 million guaranteed Main Event
• The $2,500 Two-Day tournament
• Three special “mystery” events unlike anything FTOPS has ever seen before

Remember to participate in the Satellite Challenge, which gives you the chance to win tournament entries and T$s. Stay on top of the FTOPS VIII action by checking out the FTOPS leaderboard and watching video highlights from each final table with commentary provided by the pros and Poker After Dark announcer Ali Nejad.

FTOPS VIII Prizes

Be one of the final players in any FTOPS VIII event and receive more than just a nice payday:

• Everyone who makes the final table of any FTOPS VIII event will receive a limited-edition FTOPS jacket
• Players who win an FTOPS VIII event will receive the jacket, along with a gold FTOPS jersey, a coveted gold jersey avatar for use on Full Tilt Poker and an entry to the FTOPS Season II Tournament of Champions

FTOPS Tournament of Champions

We’ve crowned 50 champions so far in our second full year of FTOPS. Twenty-four more players will join this elite group after FTOPS VIII is complete. To find out who’s the best of the best, we’re gathering all the winners from FTOPS V, VI, VII and VIII together to compete in the Tournament of Champions for the chance to win a free $10K WSOP* Main Event seat.

All of the champions from the second year of FTOPS will be automatically entered into the TOC, which will take place at 15:00 ET (20:00 GMT) on Saturday, May 24th. Prove that you’re the best of the best and make your way to Vegas for the Big Dance.

You can’t keep a good poker player down. Here’s your chance to prove that you’ve got the ability to bounce back from a tough blow and keep on rolling.

Finishing on the bubble can hurt, especially when it happens in an FTOPS event. That’s why we’re giving you the chance to bounce back with the “Bouncebackability” Freeroll. Be the last player eliminated before the money in any FTOPS event and win an entry to this exclusive Freeroll where a buy-in to the FTOPS IX Main Event will be up for grabs. The “Bouncebackability” Freeroll will take place on Saturday, May 24th at 15:00 ET (20:00 GMT).

No one likes to be the bubble boy. Now, you can bounce back higher than ever before.

By Tony Guerrera

Poker is about much more than just your cards. It’s also about how your opponents play. Putting opponents on hand distributions is a big part of determining how your opponents play, but it’s only half of what you need to do when you read your opponents. You also need to predict how your opponents respond to your actions:

1.) If your hand compares unfavorably to your opponents’ hand distributions, lines of play may exist that will force your opponents to fold often enough for you to show a long-term profit.

2.) Suppose you’re in a hand of no-limit hold’em, and you put an opponent on a range of weak hands that are all better than your hand. For example, you missed a straight draw with 87, and you put your opponent on ace-high or bottom pair. Many foes will fold to bets on the river with such hands–but not all of them. Bluffing is only a good play if your opponent is the type who will fold such hands.

3.) If your hand compares favorably to your opponents’ hand distributions, size your bets such that you extract value or take pots down immediately depending on what the circumstances dictate..

4.) Know when you’re against a tricky opponent capable of inducing a mistake from you when you have a good–but not–great hand. Ideally, when in such a situation, you should employ lines of play that allow you to see showdowns relatively easily and cheaply. You don’t want to fold too many winners; simultaneously, you don’t want to lose lots of chips in big pots when you’re beaten.

Once you’re able to put your opponents on accurate hand and action distributions, you can have complete control over your table. You’ll know how to make as many chips as possible with your very good hands, you’ll know how to maximize value while minimizing losses with your decent–but not great–hands, and you’ll find ways to win chips even when you’re not getting good hole cards or hitting flops. To be a good player, you need to be good at accomplishing all of these tasks.

Tony Guerrera is the author of Killer Poker By The Numbers. Visit him online at http://www.killerpokerbythenumbers.com

Win big with small change at Pacific Poker’s new 1¢/2¢ ring games!

Cents make sense and at Pacific Poker’s 1¢/2¢ tables in Money Play they also make dollars now that it’s cheaper to play and more thrilling than ever!

Make your money go a long way - log in now, click on the Ring Games tab, locate our 1¢/2¢ tables and start making dollars from cents!

Think you have what it takes to be the WSOP* Main Event Champion? Win your Main Event seat through Full Tilt Poker and you could have an extra 10 million reasons to smile.

For the fourth year running, we’re the only place where you can find $10 Million Main Event Mania – the world’s biggest poker promotion. Qualifying for this incredible opportunity couldn’t be easier – just win your WSOP* Main Event entry through our site and you’re in the Main Event and in the race for $10 Million in extra cash free from Full Tilt Poker.

Go on to win the Main Event after earning your tournament entry on our site and you’ll take home the first-place prize money plus $10 million more. To earn your shot at this amazing prize, just play for your entry to the Big Dance in any of our great qualifier tournaments, including the:

• 150 Seat Main Event Guarantee
• Race to the Main Event Giveaway
• $200 Tuesday Main Event Guarantee
• $300 Wednesday Main Event Guarantee
• $1K Thursday Main Event Guarantee
• $500 Sunday Main Event Guarantee

We’ll award at least 15 $12K Main Event prize packages each week through June 22nd, so there’s plenty of opportunity for you to win your way to the biggest poker tournament in the world. Take your seat in Vegas and you could leave the table with the first-place prize money and an extra $10 million courtesy of Full Tilt Poker.

With so many ways to win and our $10 Million Main Event Mania, you’d be crazy to play for your Main Event entry anywhere else.

*World Series of Poker and WSOP are trademarks of Harrah’s License Company, LLC (”Harrahs”). Harrah’s does not sponsor or endorse, and is not associated or affiliated with Full Tilt Poker or its products, services, promotions or tournaments.

ParadisePoker are now offering a 100% up to €500 bonus to every new player. If you make a first transfer of €500 they will credit your pending account with a bonus of another €500 . If you decide to transfer less than that for the first time they will match exactly the amount you transfer.

This is one of the most generous signup bonus in planet poker, every customer can get up to €500. Start playing today at any of their cash tables or real money tournaments and you will be earning points against your bonus.

By Tony Guerrera

Situation 1: Joe Schmoe is playing in a fullhanded no-limit hold’em ring game. Action folds to Joe, and he raises with A♣9♣ from the cutoff. The button and the blinds call, and the flop is A♥A♦9♦. The blinds check to Joe, and he makes a pot-sized bet fueled by two hopes:

1.) One of his opponents has the case ace and will go over the top.
2.) An opponent with a pocket pair will call on the flop
3.) An opponent with a flush draw will call or semibluff

All three of Joe’s opponents dash Joe’s hopes and quickly fold.
Situation 2: Joe Schmoe is playing shorthanded no-limit hold’em. In 100 hands of play there’s only been one reraise preflop. Joe raised from the button, the small blind reraised, and Joe folded. This happened around hand #50 of Joe’s session.
During hands #101 and #102, Joe (who has been playing somewhat aggressively but far from manically) opens from the button and the cutoff with raises. Both times, the same player reraises. After not doing much for 8 hands, Joe opens for a raise with JJ. Joe is reraised again–this time by a different player who has never reraised preflop. Being that this is the third time in the span of about 10 hands that he’s been reraised preflop, Joe has faith in his JJ, goes over the top, and ends up losing 100 big blinds versus his opponent’s AA.

Hope and faith adversely affect our poker playing. In situation #1, Joe needs to think about his opponents. Instead of betting pot and hoping, he should think realistically about his opponents’ distributions. In many–but not all–games, a half-pot bet (or even something slightly less) will be ideal. A pot-sized bet might actually force a player with the case ace out of the pot if he has a bad kicker to accompany it. And anyone who mucks an ace with a bad kicker here will do the same with a pocket pair. Instead of betting big and hoping for a monster confrontation, Joe should bet smaller and get value from his hand.

In situation #2, a lot of things happen within a short span of time, and Joe makes a common mistake. At a table where no preflop reraising is happening, the reality of the game is that players are waiting for cards. The player who reraised Joe twice in a row probably had big hands both times. It could be possible that the different player who reraises him the third time observed Joe’s reaction to the prior two reraises, but the texture of the table dictates that Joe probably ran into another big hand. If preflop reraises begins happening regularly–on the order of once every two orbits or so–Joe can reason that the dynamic of the game has changed. But by letting faith replace reason with a hand like JJ and a random short spurt of events, Joe got himself into a lot of trouble.

Tony Guerrera is the author of Killer Poker By The Numbers. Visit him online at http://www.killerpokerbythenumbers.com